Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 619 at 09:40 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–39%.

Safest bet that day UA 619 DEN 09:40 → CLE 14:36 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest WN 2337 DEN 19:30 → CLE 00:25 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 31% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 619 United Flight history →	DEN 09:40	CLE 14:36	11%	2%	0.5%	97%
F9 1918 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 06:00	CLE 10:58	13%	3%	0.8%	88%
UA 2476 United Flight history →	DEN 13:55	CLE 18:53	17%	6%	0.5%	90%
UA 1790 United Flight history →	DEN 17:40	CLE 22:41	22%	7%	0.5%	75%
WN 1506 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 12:20	CLE 17:10	27%	6%	0.5%	85%worse than usual
WN 2337 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 19:30	CLE 00:25	39%	7%	0.5%	31%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON