Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 573 at 06:41 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–21%.

Safest bet that day AA 573 DEN 06:41 → CLT 12:04 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest F9 1362 DEN 15:52 → CLT 21:19 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 573 American Flight history →	DEN 06:41	CLT 12:04	8%	3%	0.6%	94%
UA 1633 United Flight history →	DEN 09:50	CLT 15:12	14%	3%	0.5%	90%
AA 3156 American Flight history →	DEN 23:59	CLT 05:13	14%	3%	0.7%	67%
AA 1754 American Flight history →	DEN 10:00	CLT 15:31	18%	4%	0.6%	81%
UA 616 United Flight history →	DEN 17:45	CLT 23:08	21%	7%	0.6%	71%
AA 1735 American Flight history →	DEN 15:57	CLT 21:27	24%	7%	0.6%	54%
AA 1758 American Flight history →	DEN 13:56	CLT 19:22	25%	6%	0.6%	75%
F9 1362 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 15:52	CLT 21:19	31%	9%	0.7%	86%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	DEN 05:45 → BNA 09:15WN 1483	55m Nashville	BNA 10:10 → CLT 12:35WN 477	4h 50m	94%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON