Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 480 at 09:35 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–38%.

Safest bet that day UA 480 DEN 09:35 → CMH 14:28 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 1707 DEN 19:50 → CMH 00:40 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 480 United Flight history →	DEN 09:35	CMH 14:28	10%	2%	0.5%	92%
WN 1508 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 10:30	CMH 15:15	21%	3%	0.5%	67%
UA 1843 United Flight history →	DEN 17:40	CMH 22:37	21%	7%	0.5%	77%
F9 1694 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 11:05	CMH 16:02	27%	6%	0.7%	82%
WN 1509 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 14:35	CMH 19:15	30%	7%	0.5%	61%
WN 1707 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 19:50	CMH 00:40	38%	7%	0.5%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON