Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3419 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–37%.

Safest bet that day WN 3419 DEN 08:00 → COS 08:55 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest WN 3811 DEN 20:55 → COS 21:50 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 29% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3419 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 08:00	COS 08:55	7%	2%	0.5%	98%
UA 5246 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 07:45	COS 08:41	12%	4%	0.6%	85%
UA 4745 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 23:09	COS 23:59	14%	5%	0.6%	87%
UA 5306 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 09:45	COS 10:46	15%	5%	0.6%	83%
UA 4650 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 21:10	COS 22:06	17%	6%	0.6%	76%
UA 1111 United Flight history →	DEN 11:32	COS 12:23	21%	5%	0.6%	75%
UA 5546 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 15:35	COS 16:32	23%	7%	0.6%	81%
UA 5308 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 16:55	COS 17:52	23%	9%	0.6%	66%
UA 4775 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 13:30	COS 14:27	23%	8%	0.6%	73%
UA 4744 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 20:30	COS 21:26	25%	8%	0.6%	28%
UA 5669 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 19:50	COS 20:46	25%	8%	0.6%	84%
UA 4793 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 19:05	COS 20:01	27%	8%	0.6%	74%
UA 5861 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 17:55	COS 18:54	28%	9%	0.6%	68%
WN 1228 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 13:20	COS 14:05	32%	5%	0.5%	57%
WN 3811 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 20:55	COS 21:50	37%	7%	0.6%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON