Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, UA 5797 at 17:30, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 5797 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 17:30	COU 20:39	19%	8%	0.8%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Columbia is 1 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DEN 05:00 → DFW 08:05AA 2612	1h 25m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:30 → COU 11:14AA 3478 · flown by Envoy	5h 14m	98%	87%
American Details →	DEN 09:08 → ORD 12:56AA 1747	3h 33m Chicago	ORD 16:29 → COU 18:01AA 3479 · flown by Envoy	7h 53m	100%	83%
American Details →	DEN 10:38 → DFW 13:40AA 1756	3h 33m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:13 → COU 18:56AA 3890 · flown by Envoy	7h 18m	96%	79%
American Details →	DEN 09:04 → DFW 12:07AA 1523	3h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:07 → COU 16:49AA 3481 · flown by Envoy	6h 45m	95%	79%
United Details →	DEN 06:00 → ORD 09:42UA 1377	3h 33m Chicago	ORD 13:15 → COU 14:50UA 5521 · flown by SkyWest	7h 50m	99%	78%
American Details →	DEN 12:34 → ORD 16:31AA 1744	2h 58m Chicago	ORD 19:29 → COU 21:01AA 3745 · flown by Envoy	7h 27m	96%	78%
United Details →	DEN 15:01 → ORD 18:46UA 1023	3h 14m Chicago	ORD 22:00 → COU 23:33UA 5336 · flown by SkyWest	7h 32m	97%	77%
American Details →	DEN 15:11 → DFW 18:21AA 420	2h 12m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:33 → COU 22:20AA 4282 · flown by Envoy	6h 09m	93%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DEN 14:34 → ORD 18:29AA 1760	1h 00m Chicago	ORD 19:29 → COU 21:01AA 3745 · flown by Envoy	5h 27m	74%	60%
American Details →	DEN 16:23 → DFW 19:34AA 1832	59m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:33 → COU 22:20AA 4282 · flown by Envoy	4h 57m	73%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON