Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1978 at 09:40 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–31%.

Safest bet that day UA 1978 DEN 09:40 → CVG 14:28 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest F9 3286 DEN 14:48 → CVG 19:31 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1978 United Flight history →	DEN 09:40	CVG 14:28	10%	3%	0.6%	93%
UA 1615 United Flight history →	DEN 17:48	CVG 22:40	20%	8%	0.6%	76%
WN 1251 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 15:10	CVG 19:45	31%	6%	0.6%	35%
F9 3286 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 14:48	CVG 19:31	31%	9%	0.7%	82%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON