Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1078 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 1078 DEN 05:10 → DAL 08:05 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest WN 1522 DEN 19:05 → DAL 22:05 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 24% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1078 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 05:10	DAL 08:05	3%	1%	0.7%	98%
WN 1517 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 06:15	DAL 09:10	4%	1%	0.7%	87%
WN 1360 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 08:45	DAL 11:40	7%	1%	0.6%	72%
WN 1518 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 10:05	DAL 13:10	12%	2%	0.6%	75%
WN 2354 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 11:40	DAL 14:45	17%	3%	0.6%	63%
WN 1388 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 15:55	DAL 19:00	27%	6%	0.6%	38%
WN 1523 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 20:30	DAL 23:30	31%	6%	0.6%	41%
WN 1521 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 17:50	DAL 21:05	33%	7%	0.6%	39%
WN 1522 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 19:05	DAL 22:05	35%	7%	0.6%	24%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON