tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, UA 1228 at 18:06, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1228 United Flight history → DEN 18:06 DAY 22:55 17% 6% 0.6% 65%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dayton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dayton is 2 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DEN 00:40 → ATL 05:42DL 302 3h 18m Atlanta ATL 09:00 → DAY 10:30DL 3108 7h 50m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → DEN 05:45 → ATL 10:44DL 341 2h 51m Atlanta ATL 13:35 → DAY 15:04DL 2763 7h 19m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → DEN 05:00 → DFW 08:05AA 2612 1h 25m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:30 → DAY 13:04AA 5163 · flown by PSA 6h 04m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → DEN 14:10 → ATL 19:16DL 706 3h 04m Atlanta ATL 22:20 → DAY 23:51DL 3167 7h 41m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → DEN 09:39 → ATL 14:35DL 2235 1h 42m Atlanta ATL 16:17 → DAY 17:50DL 3088 6h 11m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → DEN 06:13 → IAD 11:41UA 1279 1h 03m Dulles IAD 12:44 → DAY 14:18UA 4241 · flown by CommuteAir 6h 05m 96% 79%
AmericanDetails → DEN 06:41 → CLT 12:04AA 573 3h 26m Charlotte CLT 15:30 → DAY 17:12AA 5198 · flown by PSA 8h 31m 99% 78%
UnitedDetails → DEN 06:00 → ORD 09:42UA 1377 1h 47m Chicago ORD 11:29 → DAY 13:47UA 5811 · flown by SkyWest 5h 47m 99% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → DEN 10:38 → DFW 13:40AA 1756 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:30 → DAY 18:02AA 5156 · flown by PSA 5h 24m 75% 58%
UnitedDetails → DEN 13:25 → ORD 17:05UA 617 46m Chicago ORD 17:51 → DAY 20:22UA 4484 · flown by GoJet 4h 57m 66% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON