Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2612 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–32%.

Safest bet that day AA 2612 DEN 05:00 → DFW 08:05 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest F9 2148 DEN 17:23 → DFW 20:36 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2612 American Flight history →	DEN 05:00	DFW 08:05	5%	2%	0.9%	90%
AA 2078 American Flight history →	DEN 06:20	DFW 09:27	6%	3%	0.8%	87%
UA 2160 United Flight history →	DEN 07:32	DFW 10:39	7%	3%	0.5%	90%
UA 355 United Flight history →	DEN 09:40	DFW 12:48	9%	4%	0.5%	94%
F9 2550 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 05:05	DFW 08:09	11%	3%	0.7%	82%
AA 1090 American Flight history →	DEN 07:22	DFW 10:29	13%	5%	0.8%	75%
AA 1523 American Flight history →	DEN 09:04	DFW 12:07	15%	5%	0.8%	82%
UA 578 United Flight history →	DEN 13:45	DFW 16:51	16%	6%	0.6%	76%
UA 2239 United Flight history →	DEN 20:53	DFW 23:59	16%	6%	0.6%	69%
UA 414 United Flight history →	DEN 15:42	DFW 18:48	18%	9%	0.6%	63%
AA 1756 American Flight history →	DEN 10:38	DFW 13:40	19%	6%	0.8%	69%
UA 1565 United Flight history →	DEN 18:53	DFW 21:59	19%	8%	0.6%	69%
F9 3366 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 10:09	DFW 13:19	20%	7%	0.7%	78%
AA 2359 American Flight history →	DEN 12:39	DFW 15:47	20%	9%	0.8%	64%
AA 420 American Flight history →	DEN 15:11	DFW 18:21	24%	12%	0.8%	69%
AA 1832 American Flight history →	DEN 16:23	DFW 19:34	26%	11%	0.8%	61%
F9 4070 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 14:55	DFW 18:03	28%	11%	0.7%	66%
AA 1322 American Flight history →	DEN 18:10	DFW 21:18	29%	11%	0.9%	42%
F9 2148 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 17:23	DFW 20:36	32%	13%	0.8%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON