Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 4801 at 07:52 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–36%.

Safest bet that day UA 4801 DEN 07:52 → DSM 10:42 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest WN 2940 DEN 19:35 → DSM 22:25 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 12% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 4801 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 07:52	DSM 10:42	7%	3%	0.5%	100%
UA 5211 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 09:50	DSM 12:47	9%	3%	0.5%	92%
WN 1524 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 10:00	DSM 12:50	10%	2%	0.5%	88%
UA 1311 United Flight history →	DEN 13:30	DSM 16:15	16%	6%	0.6%	89%
UA 5389 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 20:45	DSM 23:44	17%	6%	0.6%	83%
F9 1678 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 10:46	DSM 13:34	19%	5%	0.6%	83%
UA 549 United Flight history →	DEN 17:40	DSM 20:30	23%	9%	0.6%	77%
WN 2940 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 19:35	DSM 22:25	36%	9%	0.5%	12%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON