Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 1745 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–36%.

Safest bet that day DL 1745 DEN 06:05 → DTW 10:54 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 2193 DEN 19:05 → DTW 23:55 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 30% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1745 Delta Flight history →	DEN 06:05	DTW 10:54	6%	2%	0.5%	90%
DL 1096 Delta Flight history →	DEN 00:59	DTW 05:48	7%	3%	0.5%	91%
UA 1915 United Flight history →	DEN 09:35	DTW 14:27	11%	3%	0.5%	96%
DL 2787 Delta Flight history →	DEN 10:25	DTW 15:19	13%	4%	0.5%	84%
F9 3566 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 07:41	DTW 12:34	14%	4%	0.7%	91%
DL 1648 Delta Flight history →	DEN 14:59	DTW 19:49	18%	6%	0.5%	83%
UA 1220 United Flight history →	DEN 17:47	DTW 22:43	22%	7%	0.6%	70%
WN 1526 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 12:20	DTW 17:05	28%	4%	0.5%	65%
F9 4186 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 18:59	DTW 23:59	28%	10%	0.7%	68%
WN 2193 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 19:05	DTW 23:55	36%	7%	0.6%	30%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON