Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 4379 at 17:55, with a 29% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4379 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 17:55	ECP 22:05	29%	8%	0.6%	36%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Panama City Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Panama City Beach is 1 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DEN 00:40 → ATL 05:42DL 302	2h 23m Atlanta	ATL 08:05 → ECP 08:12DL 3048	6h 32m	100%	93%
United Details →	DEN 11:34 → IAH 15:09UA 1599	2h 56m Houston	IAH 18:05 → ECP 20:03UA 4826 · flown by CommuteAir	7h 29m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	DEN 05:45 → ATL 10:44DL 341	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 13:49 → ECP 13:54DL 2823	7h 09m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	DEN 13:10 → ATL 18:10DL 824	2h 25m Atlanta	ATL 20:35 → ECP 20:46DL 2494	6h 36m	100%	86%
Southwest Details →	DEN 05:10 → DAL 08:05WN 1078	1h 20m Dallas	DAL 09:25 → ECP 11:20WN 3032	5h 10m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	DEN 09:39 → ATL 14:35DL 2235	3h 10m Atlanta	ATL 17:45 → ECP 17:55DL 3053	7h 16m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	DEN 07:15 → ATL 12:11DL 431	3h 50m Atlanta	ATL 16:01 → ECP 16:12DL 3094	7h 57m	99%	85%
American Details →	DEN 07:16 → ORD 11:00AA 2771	1h 30m Chicago	ORD 12:30 → ECP 15:03AA 4534 · flown by Republic	6h 47m	95%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	DEN 15:35 → IAH 19:10UA 489	51m Houston	IAH 20:01 → ECP 21:58UA 4343 · flown by CommuteAir	5h 23m	69%	52%
Southwest Details →	DEN 15:55 → DAL 19:00WN 1388	50m Dallas	DAL 19:50 → ECP 21:45WN 1937	4h 50m	67%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON