Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1201 at 07:50 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–36%.

Safest bet that day WN 1201 DEN 07:50 → ELP 09:40 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest WN 1530 DEN 17:20 → ELP 19:10 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 36% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1201 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 07:50	ELP 09:40	6%	1%	0.6%	80%
UA 792 United Flight history →	DEN 11:45	ELP 13:35	14%	4%	0.6%	83%
F9 2261 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 16:10	ELP 18:04	26%	10%	0.7%	80%
UA 333 United Flight history →	DEN 19:20	ELP 21:11	27%	7%	0.6%	66%
WN 1319 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 20:55	ELP 22:50	35%	8%	0.6%	49%
WN 1530 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 17:20	ELP 19:10	36%	8%	0.6%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON