Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1532 at 07:50 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 1532 DEN 07:50 → EUG 09:35 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest WN 3821 DEN 20:55 → EUG 22:45 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 33% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1532 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 07:50	EUG 09:35	10%	2%	0.6%	88%
UA 318 United Flight history →	DEN 11:15	EUG 12:57	17%	6%	0.6%	73%
UA 1303 United Flight history →	DEN 19:35	EUG 21:21	21%	6%	0.6%	75%
WN 3821 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 20:55	EUG 22:45	23%	6%	0.6%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON