Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2345 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 2345 DEN 06:00 → EWR 11:49 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest UA 1715 DEN 15:35 → EWR 21:29 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2345 United Flight history →	DEN 06:00	EWR 11:49	4%	1%	0.6%	96%
UA 2640 United Flight history →	DEN 07:40	EWR 13:27	7%	2%	0.6%	90%
UA 1745 United Flight history →	DEN 23:59	EWR 05:40	11%	3%	0.7%	92%
UA 1423 United Flight history →	DEN 10:02	EWR 16:00	17%	5%	0.6%	85%
UA 2767 United Flight history →	DEN 19:10	EWR 01:04	22%	8%	0.7%	56%
UA 1233 United Flight history →	DEN 11:37	EWR 17:31	22%	8%	0.6%	77%
UA 1283 United Flight history →	DEN 12:40	EWR 18:35	23%	8%	0.7%	71%
UA 2613 United Flight history →	DEN 17:50	EWR 23:44	25%	8%	0.7%	71%
UA 1505 United Flight history →	DEN 13:41	EWR 19:35	29%	8%	0.7%	70%
UA 1715 United Flight history →	DEN 15:35	EWR 21:29	30%	10%	0.7%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON