Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Alaska via Anchorage, leaving 07:20, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Fairbanks on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 250 United Flight history →	DEN 19:24	FAI 22:59	20%	5%	0.8%	76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fairbanks on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fairbanks is 2 h behind Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	DEN 07:20 → ANC 10:56AS 432	1h 24m Anchorage	ANC 12:20 → FAI 13:24AS 1336	8h 04m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	DEN 12:11 → MSP 15:11DL 2877	2h 59m Minneapolis	MSP 18:10 → FAI 20:49DL 1055	10h 38m	98%	78%
United Details →	DEN 09:35 → ORD 13:15UA 2329	2h 45m Chicago	ORD 16:00 → FAI 19:39UA 2223	12h 04m	98%	76%
Delta Details →	DEN 06:30 → SEA 08:26DL 1731	2h 19m Seattle	SEA 10:45 → FAI 13:42DL 1061	9h 12m	99%	74%
Alaska Details →	DEN 06:02 → SEA 08:05AS 643	1h 48m Seattle	SEA 09:53 → FAI 12:44AS 1552	8h 42m	98%	67%
Alaska Details →	DEN 19:05 → PDX 20:50AS 1807	1h 09m Portland	PDX 21:59 → FAI 00:55 +1AS 1521	7h 50m	79%	65%
Alaska Details →	DEN 12:55 → SEA 14:53AS 381	3h 03m Seattle	SEA 17:56 → FAI 20:46AS 284	9h 51m	100%	64%
Alaska Details →	DEN 18:15 → SEA 20:17AS 249	3h 10m Seattle	SEA 23:27 → FAI 02:15 +1AS 1512	10h 00m	95%	60%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DEN 18:39 → SEA 20:41DL 2543	1h 00m Seattle	SEA 21:41 → FAI 00:30 +1DL 2186	7h 51m	67%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON