Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 5655 at 11:29 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–26%.

Safest bet that day UA 5655 DEN 11:29 → FAT 13:14 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 4461 DEN 14:40 → FAT 16:00 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5655 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 11:29	FAT 13:14	13%	5%	0.5%	92%
UA 4806 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 15:57	FAT 17:42	16%	8%	0.5%	89%
UA 1172 United Flight history →	DEN 19:25	FAT 20:55	22%	9%	0.6%	50%
WN 4461 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 14:40	FAT 16:00	26%	5%	0.5%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON