Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2188 at 09:47 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24–37%.

Safest bet that day UA 2188 DEN 09:47 → FLL 15:47 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest WN 4222 DEN 14:55 → FLL 20:50 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 35% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2188 United Flight history →	DEN 09:47	FLL 15:47	18%	5%	0.7%	83%
UA 1374 United Flight history →	DEN 17:45	FLL 23:51	24%	8%	1.2%	77%
WN 4222 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 14:55	FLL 20:50	37%	10%	1.7%	35%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	DEN 09:39 → ATL 14:35DL 2235	50m Atlanta	ATL 15:25 → FLL 17:23DL 2345	5h 44m	82%	60%
Delta Details →	DEN 10:52 → ATL 15:52DL 346	47m Atlanta	ATL 16:39 → FLL 18:40DL 1295	5h 48m	78%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON