Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 5975 at 07:40 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–27%.

Safest bet that day UA 5975 DEN 07:40 → FSD 10:23 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest F9 2108 DEN 16:42 → FSD 19:23 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5975 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 07:40	FSD 10:23	10%	3%	0.5%	94%
UA 5700 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 21:10	FSD 23:53	14%	5%	0.6%	79%
UA 4759 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 09:55	FSD 12:35	15%	4%	0.5%	89%
UA 5378 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 13:40	FSD 16:23	18%	6%	0.5%	86%
UA 645 United Flight history →	DEN 17:28	FSD 20:08	20%	7%	0.6%	78%
UA 4776 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 15:35	FSD 18:16	21%	7%	0.5%	73%
F9 2108 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 16:42	FSD 19:23	27%	8%	0.6%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON