Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3433 at 07:50 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 3433 DEN 07:50 → GEG 09:10 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 4440 DEN 16:05 → GEG 17:30 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3433 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 07:50	GEG 09:10	5%	1%	0.5%	90%
UA 295 United Flight history →	DEN 11:15	GEG 12:37	11%	4%	0.5%	83%
UA 324 United Flight history →	DEN 13:46	GEG 15:11	11%	6%	0.5%	87%
UA 778 United Flight history →	DEN 19:40	GEG 21:05	17%	6%	0.5%	71%
WN 1538 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 22:05	GEG 23:30	25%	6%	0.5%	37%
WN 4440 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 16:05	GEG 17:30	26%	6%	0.5%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON