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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 10–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1714 DEN 11:24 → GJT 12:31 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest UA 4770 DEN 16:20 → GJT 17:33 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
UA 1714 United Flight history → DEN 11:24 GJT 12:31 10% 3% 0.6% 87%
UA 5559 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → DEN 07:40 GJT 08:53 10% 3% 0.6% 86%
UA 4704 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → DEN 09:35 GJT 10:44 10% 3% 0.6% 88%
UA 5488 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → DEN 13:25 GJT 14:40 13% 5% 0.7% 86%
UA 5240 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → DEN 20:55 GJT 22:11 16% 4% 0.7% 78%
UA 431 United Flight history → DEN 19:25 GJT 20:34 17% 5% 0.6% 72%
UA 4770 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → DEN 16:20 GJT 17:33 18% 5% 0.7% 72%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON