tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 05:45, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Honolulu on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 384 United Flight history → DEN 12:00 HNL 15:13 20% 6% 0.6% 82%
UA 1805 United Flight history → DEN 16:00 HNL 19:13 25% 7% 0.6% 72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 4 h behind Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → DEN 05:45 → LAS 06:40WN 3106 1h 35m Las Vegas LAS 08:15 → HNL 11:35WN 2238 9h 50m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → DEN 05:15 → SFO 06:53UA 2367 2h 27m San Francisco SFO 09:20 → HNL 11:43UA 1175 10h 28m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → DEN 06:00 → MSP 09:00DL 1129 1h 10m Minneapolis MSP 10:10 → HNL 13:43DL 312 11h 43m 97% 84%
UnitedDetails → DEN 13:25 → SFO 15:09UA 1812 3h 51m San Francisco SFO 19:00 → HNL 21:43UA 638 12h 18m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → DEN 06:04 → LAX 07:34UA 1093 3h 31m Los Angeles LAX 11:05 → HNL 13:56UA 1224 11h 52m 100% 81%
AmericanDetails → DEN 11:44 → LAX 13:19AA 4957 · flown by SkyWest 2h 36m Los Angeles LAX 15:55 → HNL 18:41AA 143 10h 57m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → DEN 07:05 → SLC 08:36DL 1581 3h 09m Salt Lake City SLC 11:45 → HNL 14:19DL 316 11h 14m 97% 80%
SouthwestDetails → DEN 06:15 → PHX 07:05WN 1675 2h 25m Phoenix PHX 09:30 → HNL 12:55WN 3274 10h 40m 99% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561 51m San Francisco SFO 13:55 → HNL 16:18UA 300 8h 57m 72% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON