Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1730 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 1730 DEN 05:15 → HOU 08:40 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest WN 1545 DEN 17:20 → HOU 21:00 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 41% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1730 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 05:15	HOU 08:40	3%	1%	1.3%	94%
WN 2215 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 07:25	HOU 10:50	6%	1%	1.4%	92%
WN 1543 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 10:15	HOU 13:55	15%	3%	1.2%	81%
WN 1544 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 12:30	HOU 16:05	21%	5%	1.2%	79%
WN 2026 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 20:25	HOU 23:55	28%	6%	0.7%	54%
WN 606 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 18:40	HOU 22:15	29%	7%	0.7%	34%
WN 1545 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 17:20	HOU 21:00	31%	8%	0.7%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON