Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 320 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–31%.

Safest bet that day UA 320 DEN 05:00 → IAH 08:32 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest F9 3228 DEN 17:35 → IAH 21:14 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 320 United Flight history →	DEN 05:00	IAH 08:32	4%	1%	0.6%	97%
UA 1720 United Flight history →	DEN 07:42	IAH 11:15	7%	2%	0.6%	92%
UA 1253 United Flight history →	DEN 21:10	IAH 00:41	13%	6%	0.6%	67%
F9 3206 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 07:00	IAH 10:34	14%	4%	0.7%	87%
UA 1129 United Flight history →	DEN 10:07	IAH 13:40	15%	4%	0.6%	70%
UA 1599 United Flight history →	DEN 11:34	IAH 15:09	15%	5%	0.6%	78%
UA 2419 United Flight history →	DEN 20:28	IAH 23:59	16%	6%	0.6%	80%
UA 475 United Flight history →	DEN 19:35	IAH 23:06	18%	7%	0.6%	75%
UA 1829 United Flight history →	DEN 13:30	IAH 17:04	18%	7%	0.6%	73%
UA 2791 United Flight history →	DEN 18:05	IAH 21:36	19%	8%	0.6%	56%
UA 588 United Flight history →	DEN 16:20	IAH 19:57	19%	8%	0.6%	78%
UA 489 United Flight history →	DEN 15:35	IAH 19:10	20%	7%	0.6%	78%
UA 1585 United Flight history →	DEN 17:18	IAH 20:55	20%	8%	0.6%	74%
F9 2996 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 21:06	IAH 00:40	28%	10%	0.7%	76%
F9 3228 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 17:35	IAH 21:14	31%	13%	0.7%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON