Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 6020 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–31%.

Safest bet that day UA 6020 DEN 07:45 → ICT 10:16 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 1551 DEN 19:55 → ICT 22:25 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 26% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 6020 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 07:45	ICT 10:16	9%	3%	0.5%	90%
UA 5497 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 09:55	ICT 12:27	12%	4%	0.5%	91%
UA 4755 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 21:10	ICT 23:45	14%	5%	0.6%	80%
UA 5454 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 13:59	ICT 16:34	15%	6%	0.6%	85%
UA 4782 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 15:35	ICT 18:07	17%	6%	0.6%	84%
WN 4262 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 11:25	ICT 13:50	21%	4%	0.6%	71%
UA 2166 United Flight history →	DEN 18:48	ICT 21:22	21%	8%	0.6%	66%
WN 1551 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 19:55	ICT 22:25	31%	8%	0.6%	26%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON