Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 5374 at 08:05 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 5374 DEN 08:05 → IDA 09:50 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest UA 5989 DEN 19:20 → IDA 21:07 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5374 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 08:05	IDA 09:50	9%	5%	0.5%	87%
UA 2383 United Flight history →	DEN 11:45	IDA 13:25	14%	5%	0.6%	72%
UA 5950 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 13:50	IDA 15:34	16%	6%	0.6%	82%
UA 5322 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 15:35	IDA 17:19	17%	7%	0.6%	85%
UA 5989 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 19:20	IDA 21:07	22%	7%	0.6%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON