Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1552 at 08:40 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 1552 DEN 08:40 → IND 13:00 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest F9 2348 DEN 15:35 → IND 20:08 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1552 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 08:40	IND 13:00	11%	2%	0.5%	86%
UA 1522 United Flight history →	DEN 09:43	IND 14:16	11%	3%	0.5%	87%
WN 1553 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 11:40	IND 16:10	21%	4%	0.5%	65%
UA 1199 United Flight history →	DEN 17:53	IND 22:30	22%	8%	0.6%	76%
WN 1554 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 13:55	IND 18:25	25%	6%	0.5%	79%
WN 2837 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 14:55	IND 19:20	30%	6%	0.5%	67%
WN 1211 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 19:15	IND 23:50	31%	7%	0.6%	37%
F9 2348 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 15:35	IND 20:08	32%	9%	0.6%	83%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON