Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1413 at 08:05 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–19%.

Safest bet that day UA 1413 DEN 08:05 → JAC 09:34 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest UA 1306 DEN 19:25 → JAC 20:58 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1413 United Flight history →	DEN 08:05	JAC 09:34	7%	2%	0.6%	88%
UA 2193 United Flight history →	DEN 11:15	JAC 12:46	14%	3%	0.6%	84%
UA 1537 United Flight history →	DEN 13:55	JAC 15:25	16%	3%	0.6%	85%
UA 2200 United Flight history →	DEN 16:20	JAC 17:53	18%	5%	0.6%	73%
UA 1306 United Flight history →	DEN 19:25	JAC 20:58	19%	5%	0.6%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON