tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via LAX, leaving 06:04, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Kailua/Kona on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1758 United Flight history → DEN 12:15 KOA 15:37 16% 6% 0.6% 85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kailua/Kona on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kailua/Kona is 4 h behind Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → DEN 06:04 → LAX 07:34UA 1093 1h 26m Los Angeles LAX 09:00 → KOA 11:42UA 2373 9h 38m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → DEN 05:15 → SFO 06:53UA 2367 1h 17m San Francisco SFO 08:10 → KOA 10:40UA 1721 9h 25m 98% 86%
SouthwestDetails → DEN 05:45 → LAS 06:40WN 3106 2h 50m Las Vegas LAS 09:30 → KOA 12:50WN 4452 11h 05m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → DEN 11:45 → LAX 13:17UA 1013 3h 53m Los Angeles LAX 17:10 → KOA 19:47UA 1718 12h 02m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → DEN 13:25 → SFO 15:09UA 1812 3h 59m San Francisco SFO 19:08 → KOA 21:45UA 731 12h 20m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → DEN 07:13 → PHX 08:08AA 1404 2h 32m Phoenix PHX 10:40 → KOA 14:06AA 663 10h 53m 97% 80%
DeltaDetails → DEN 12:29 → LAX 13:56DL 2148 2h 48m Los Angeles LAX 16:44 → KOA 19:17DL 311 10h 48m 97% 79%
UnitedDetails → DEN 12:25 → SFO 14:09UA 1450 2h 46m San Francisco SFO 16:55 → KOA 19:31UA 1723 11h 06m 100% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DEN 07:40 → SFO 09:18UA 2391 52m San Francisco SFO 10:10 → KOA 12:37UA 694 8h 57m 73% 57%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON