Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 20 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3106 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 3106 DEN 05:45 → LAS 06:40 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest WN 1566 DEN 20:35 → LAS 21:30 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 44% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3106 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 05:45	LAS 06:40	2%	1%	0.6%	100%
UA 2316 United Flight history →	DEN 08:05	LAS 09:07	6%	2%	0.5%	94%
WN 1024 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 08:30	LAS 09:25	6%	1%	0.6%	92%
WN 1559 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 07:40	LAS 08:35	6%	1%	0.6%	88%
F9 2015 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 06:10	LAS 07:09	7%	3%	0.8%	89%
F9 1993 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 10:00	LAS 11:07	15%	7%	0.7%	81%
UA 526 United Flight history →	DEN 11:22	LAS 12:24	16%	7%	0.6%	83%
WN 1561 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 11:00	LAS 11:55	19%	4%	0.6%	83%
UA 716 United Flight history →	DEN 16:00	LAS 17:03	23%	10%	0.6%	78%
UA 655 United Flight history →	DEN 19:05	LAS 20:08	24%	11%	0.6%	70%
F9 4967 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 12:47	LAS 13:47	26%	11%	0.8%	72%
UA 2338 United Flight history →	DEN 17:46	LAS 18:50	26%	13%	0.6%	64%
F9 777 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 22:29	LAS 23:29	27%	11%	0.9%	74%
WN 1562 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 13:15	LAS 14:10	27%	7%	0.6%	53%
WN 1567 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 21:55	LAS 22:55	30%	8%	0.6%	44%
F9 2349 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 16:25	LAS 17:29	31%	14%	0.8%	74%
WN 1563 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 16:35	LAS 17:35	33%	9%	0.6%	52%
WN 1564 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 17:30	LAS 18:30	33%	11%	0.6%	51%
WN 1565 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 19:00	LAS 20:00	34%	9%	0.6%	36%
WN 1566 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 20:35	LAS 21:30	35%	9%	0.6%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON