Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 22 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1093 at 06:04 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–37%.

Safest bet that day UA 1093 DEN 06:04 → LAX 07:34 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest WN 2217 DEN 18:40 → LAX 20:10 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 16% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1093 United Flight history →	DEN 06:04	LAX 07:34	4%	2%	0.6%	97%
UA 1638 United Flight history →	DEN 08:00	LAX 09:32	9%	3%	0.6%	93%
DL 2002 Delta Flight history →	DEN 07:31	LAX 09:00	11%	4%	0.7%	90%
UA 405 United Flight history →	DEN 10:02	LAX 11:34	12%	4%	0.6%	91%
WN 1568 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 07:50	LAX 09:20	12%	2%	0.6%	82%
UA 1013 United Flight history →	DEN 11:45	LAX 13:17	14%	5%	0.6%	87%
DL 2148 Delta Flight history →	DEN 12:29	LAX 13:56	14%	6%	0.6%	78%
WN 1569 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 09:35	LAX 11:05	15%	3%	0.6%	91%
AA 4957 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 11:44	LAX 13:19	15%	6%	0.5%	79%
UA 774 United Flight history →	DEN 13:26	LAX 14:57	15%	6%	0.6%	91%
F9 3155 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 07:00	LAX 08:30	16%	4%	0.7%	88%
UA 1195 United Flight history →	DEN 15:43	LAX 17:15	16%	8%	0.6%	83%
UA 531 United Flight history →	DEN 21:20	LAX 22:55	17%	6%	0.5%	77%
UA 2240 United Flight history →	DEN 18:05	LAX 19:40	19%	8%	0.5%	77%
AA 4958 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 18:12	LAX 19:53	21%	10%	0.6%	53%
UA 1262 United Flight history →	DEN 19:43	LAX 21:18	23%	9%	0.5%	65%
WN 955 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 13:05	LAX 14:35	25%	4%	0.6%	58%
DL 2176 Delta Flight history →	DEN 19:57	LAX 21:30	26%	8%	0.7%	67%
WN 1571 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 14:50	LAX 16:20	26%	6%	0.6%	50%
F9 4345 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 22:39	LAX 00:11	26%	9%	0.7%	74%
WN 3110 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 21:10	LAX 22:45	29%	7%	0.5%	39%
WN 2217 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 18:40	LAX 20:10	37%	9%	0.5%	16%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON