Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4886 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–48%.

Safest bet that day WN 4886 DEN 06:15 → LGA 11:55 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 4233 DEN 15:05 → LGA 20:50 · 49% chance 15+ min late · usually 32% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4886 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 06:15	LGA 11:55	7%	1%	0.8%	91%
UA 1442 United Flight history →	DEN 08:03	LGA 13:57	10%	3%	0.6%	89%
DL 398 Delta Flight history →	DEN 07:10	LGA 12:52	11%	3%	0.8%	87%
UA 2446 United Flight history →	DEN 09:49	LGA 15:46	15%	4%	0.6%	83%
DL 751 Delta Flight history →	DEN 11:00	LGA 16:47	22%	5%	0.8%	80%
UA 598 United Flight history →	DEN 11:30	LGA 17:24	25%	7%	0.6%	72%
UA 2168 United Flight history →	DEN 16:00	LGA 21:54	25%	10%	0.6%	67%
WN 2813 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 09:05	LGA 14:45	26%	5%	0.7%	56%
UA 1579 United Flight history →	DEN 13:59	LGA 19:53	26%	8%	0.6%	71%
DL 716 Delta Flight history →	DEN 17:20	LGA 23:13	30%	10%	1.0%	70%
WN 4441 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 11:15	LGA 16:55	37%	7%	0.8%	51%
WN 4480 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 17:15	LGA 23:00	48%	12%	0.8%	25%
WN 4233 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 15:05	LGA 20:50	49%	12%	0.8%	32%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	DEN 09:19 → MSP 12:14DL 1675	46m Minneapolis	MSP 13:00 → LGA 16:49DL 2756	5h 30m	86%	71%
Southwest Details →	DEN 13:00 → MDW 16:20WN 1601	55m Chicago	MDW 17:15 → LGA 20:20WN 556	5h 20m	76%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON