tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via SFO, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Lihue on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 53% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2307 United Flight history → DEN 12:00 LIH 15:37 21% 5% 0.6% 85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Lihue on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Lihue is 4 h behind Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → DEN 05:15 → SFO 06:53UA 2367 2h 12m San Francisco SFO 09:05 → LIH 11:50UA 1384 10h 35m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → DEN 06:04 → LAX 07:34UA 1093 1h 11m Los Angeles LAX 08:45 → LIH 11:44UA 1295 9h 40m 98% 85%
SouthwestDetails → DEN 05:45 → LAS 06:40WN 3106 2h 45m Las Vegas LAS 09:25 → LIH 12:45WN 2262 11h 00m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → DEN 11:45 → LAX 13:17UA 1013 3h 58m Los Angeles LAX 17:15 → LIH 20:14UA 1104 12h 29m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → DEN 12:25 → SFO 14:09UA 1450 2h 46m San Francisco SFO 16:55 → LIH 19:42UA 1684 11h 17m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → DEN 06:02 → SFO 07:38UA 1301 2h 58m San Francisco SFO 10:36 → LIH 13:16UA 1298 11h 14m 100% 79%
AmericanDetails → DEN 07:13 → PHX 08:08AA 1404 2h 41m Phoenix PHX 10:49 → LIH 14:36AA 697 11h 23m 98% 76%
AlaskaDetails → DEN 12:55 → SEA 14:53AS 381 3h 20m Seattle SEA 18:13 → LIH 21:25AS 237 12h 30m 100% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → DEN 08:40 → SEA 10:42AS 317 46m Seattle SEA 11:28 → LIH 14:40AS 258 10h 00m 53% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON