Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 5333 at 10:05 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–27%.

Safest bet that day UA 5333 DEN 10:05 → MAF 12:59 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest WN 3473 DEN 20:55 → MAF 23:45 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5333 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 10:05	MAF 12:59	14%	4%	0.6%	86%
UA 5270 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 13:40	MAF 16:34	17%	5%	0.6%	85%
UA 5252 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 19:05	MAF 22:02	23%	7%	0.7%	61%
WN 3473 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 20:55	MAF 23:45	27%	8%	0.8%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON