Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1584 at 08:40 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 1584 DEN 08:40 → MCI 11:15 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 1589 DEN 19:35 → MCI 22:20 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 36% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1584 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 08:40	MCI 11:15	8%	1%	0.5%	93%
UA 2159 United Flight history →	DEN 09:39	MCI 12:26	8%	2%	0.5%	88%
UA 5247 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 08:00	MCI 10:50	10%	2%	0.5%	93%
WN 3114 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 10:00	MCI 12:45	12%	2%	0.5%	98%
UA 586 United Flight history →	DEN 13:40	MCI 16:22	15%	5%	0.5%	88%
UA 1596 United Flight history →	DEN 20:40	MCI 23:25	18%	6%	0.6%	67%
WN 1586 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 11:10	MCI 13:45	18%	2%	0.5%	82%
WN 351 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 12:30	MCI 15:05	18%	3%	0.5%	88%
UA 5385 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 15:35	MCI 18:27	19%	7%	0.5%	70%
UA 2793 United Flight history →	DEN 17:55	MCI 20:43	21%	9%	0.6%	56%
F9 4828 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 10:16	MCI 13:00	23%	4%	0.6%	90%worse than usual
WN 1587 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 15:10	MCI 17:50	25%	5%	0.5%	51%
WN 4758 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 20:40	MCI 23:25	30%	5%	0.6%	32%
WN 4305 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 17:55	MCI 20:45	32%	7%	0.6%	45%
WN 1589 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 19:35	MCI 22:20	33%	6%	0.5%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON