Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4854 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 4854 DEN 05:00 → MCO 10:40 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 1595 DEN 15:40 → MCO 21:30 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4854 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 05:00	MCO 10:40	4%	1%	15.0%	90%
UA 2321 United Flight history →	DEN 06:00	MCO 11:44	5%	2%	15.9%	97%
UA 2292 United Flight history →	DEN 08:10	MCO 13:57	11%	3%	17.1%	89%
UA 2354 United Flight history →	DEN 10:10	MCO 16:04	15%	6%	17.2%	85%
WN 1339 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 10:00	MCO 15:55	18%	6%	17.2%	85%
UA 501 United Flight history →	DEN 13:48	MCO 19:39	19%	9%	17.2%	73%
UA 259 United Flight history →	DEN 17:52	MCO 23:41	20%	7%	16.7%	78%
F9 2520 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 23:52	MCO 05:31	22%	10%	15.1%	68%
WN 1596 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 19:45	MCO 01:40	24%	8%	17.2%	46%
F9 3312 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 10:36	MCO 16:30	25%	10%	15.9%	74%
WN 1495 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 14:10	MCO 20:05	26%	8%	17.3%	61%
WN 1595 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 15:40	MCO 21:30	29%	9%	17.3%	52%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	DEN 05:45 → BNA 09:15WN 1483	1h 00m Nashville	BNA 10:15 → MCO 13:10WN 568	5h 25m	97%	72%
Southwest Details →	DEN 06:15 → DAL 09:10WN 1517	50m Dallas	DAL 10:00 → MCO 13:40WN 1540	5h 25m	94%	65%
Delta Details →	DEN 07:15 → ATL 12:11DL 431	48m Atlanta	ATL 12:59 → MCO 14:34DL 1372	5h 19m	87%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON