Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1112 at 11:05 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–36%.

Safest bet that day UA 1112 DEN 11:05 → MEM 14:26 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 2225 DEN 19:05 → MEM 22:30 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 38% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1112 United Flight history →	DEN 11:05	MEM 14:26	14%	4%	0.5%	92%
WN 4698 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 10:30	MEM 13:55	14%	2%	0.5%	77%
UA 2130 United Flight history →	DEN 17:30	MEM 20:56	20%	7%	0.5%	75%
F9 4626 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 15:43	MEM 19:03	26%	8%	0.8%	85%worse than usual
WN 2225 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 19:05	MEM 22:30	36%	7%	0.6%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON