Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 18–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 337 United Flight history →	DEN 11:20	MFR 13:05	18%	4%	0.6%	75%
UA 663 United Flight history →	DEN 19:30	MFR 21:16	24%	6%	0.6%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Medford on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Medford is 1 h behind Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DEN 05:40 → SLC 07:13DL 2544	3h 32m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → MFR 11:40DL 3806 · flown by SkyWest	7h 00m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	DEN 19:09 → SLC 20:49DL 2663	2h 10m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:59 → MFR 23:54DL 3722 · flown by SkyWest	5h 45m	96%	88%
Alaska Details →	DEN 12:02 → PDX 13:46AS 684	3h 59m Portland	PDX 17:45 → MFR 18:48AS 2163 · flown by Horizon	7h 46m	100%	84%
Alaska Details →	DEN 12:55 → SEA 14:53AS 381	2h 54m Seattle	SEA 17:47 → MFR 19:13AS 2037 · flown by Horizon	7h 18m	100%	84%
Alaska Details →	DEN 18:15 → SEA 20:17AS 249	2h 23m Seattle	SEA 22:40 → MFR 00:04 +1AS 2461 · flown by Horizon	6h 49m	95%	80%
Delta Details →	DEN 06:30 → SEA 08:26DL 1731	2h 49m Seattle	SEA 11:15 → MFR 12:56DL 3779 · flown by SkyWest	7h 26m	99%	79%
American Details →	DEN 07:13 → PHX 08:08AA 1404	2h 03m Phoenix	PHX 10:11 → MFR 12:50AA 6253 · flown by SkyWest	6h 37m	96%	78%
Alaska Details →	DEN 06:02 → SEA 08:05AS 643	3h 15m Seattle	SEA 11:20 → MFR 12:50AS 3088 · flown by SkyWest	7h 48m	99%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DEN 18:56 → PHX 19:52AA 1638	1h 18m Phoenix	PHX 21:10 → MFR 23:38AA 4915 · flown by SkyWest	5h 42m	75%	55%
Delta Details →	DEN 18:39 → SEA 20:41DL 2543	54m Seattle	SEA 21:35 → MFR 23:11DL 3954 · flown by SkyWest	5h 32m	56%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON