Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1737 at 23:45 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24–36%.

Safest bet that day AA 1737 DEN 23:45 → MIA 05:41 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time Riskiest WN 1624 DEN 12:10 → MIA 18:10 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1737 American Flight history →	DEN 23:45	MIA 05:41	20%	6%	1.1%	61%
F9 1280 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 23:40	MIA 05:51	24%	9%	1.2%	77%
UA 1496 United Flight history →	DEN 10:09	MIA 16:16	28%	8%	0.9%	54%
UA 1741 United Flight history →	DEN 17:53	MIA 23:59	30%	10%	0.8%	58%
AA 3118 American Flight history →	DEN 12:11	MIA 18:19	33%	10%	1.3%	77%worse than usual
WN 1624 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 12:10	MIA 18:10	36%	7%	0.9%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON