Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3141 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 3141 DEN 07:30 → MKE 10:50 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest WN 1634 DEN 19:05 → MKE 22:30 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 15% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3141 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 07:30	MKE 10:50	7%	1%	0.5%	85%
UA 1836 United Flight history →	DEN 09:57	MKE 13:25	11%	3%	0.6%	87%
WN 1626 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 10:15	MKE 13:40	13%	2%	0.5%	97%worse than usual
UA 4802 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 13:30	MKE 17:04	18%	8%	0.5%	90%
UA 4785 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 20:27	MKE 23:59	19%	6%	0.5%	63%
UA 4774 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 17:40	MKE 21:15	22%	6%	0.5%	59%
WN 1627 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 14:35	MKE 17:55	23%	5%	0.5%	64%
WN 1629 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 16:20	MKE 19:45	25%	7%	0.5%	92%worse than usual
WN 1634 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 19:05	MKE 22:30	26%	8%	0.5%	15%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON