tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 19–27% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 5438 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → DEN 11:15 MRY 13:10 19% 5% 0.5% 88%
UA 1371 United Flight history → DEN 19:30 MRY 21:10 27% 7% 0.7% 51%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Monterey on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Monterey is 1 h behind Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → DEN 06:04 → LAX 07:34UA 1093 2h 47m Los Angeles LAX 10:21 → MRY 11:42UA 5241 · flown by SkyWest 6h 38m 100% 81%
AmericanDetails → DEN 05:00 → DFW 08:05AA 2612 2h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:15 → MRY 11:50AA 2140 7h 50m 99% 79%
AmericanDetails → DEN 07:13 → PHX 08:08AA 1404 1h 56m Phoenix PHX 10:04 → MRY 12:05AA 3720 · flown by Envoy 5h 52m 96% 79%
UnitedDetails → DEN 15:43 → LAX 17:15UA 1195 2h 07m Los Angeles LAX 19:22 → MRY 20:36UA 1363 5h 53m 96% 77%
UnitedDetails → DEN 09:43 → SFO 11:25UA 1506 2h 25m San Francisco SFO 13:50 → MRY 14:55UA 5738 · flown by SkyWest 6h 12m 99% 68%
AmericanDetails → DEN 12:15 → PHX 13:08AA 1757 3h 28m Phoenix PHX 16:36 → MRY 18:28AA 2884 7h 13m 97% 68%
UnitedDetails → DEN 05:15 → SFO 06:53UA 2367 3h 12m San Francisco SFO 10:05 → MRY 11:10UA 5479 · flown by SkyWest 6h 55m 100% 67%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → DEN 19:59 → SAN 21:40AS 3020 · flown by SkyWest 46m San Diego SAN 22:26 → MRY 23:58AS 3005 · flown by SkyWest 4h 59m 66% 51%
UnitedDetails → DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561 46m San Francisco SFO 13:50 → MRY 14:55UA 5738 · flown by SkyWest 4h 34m 68% 47%
UnitedDetails → DEN 07:40 → SFO 09:18UA 2391 47m San Francisco SFO 10:05 → MRY 11:10UA 5479 · flown by SkyWest 4h 30m 68% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON