Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 4697 at 07:40 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–26%.

Safest bet that day UA 4697 DEN 07:40 → MSO 09:55 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest UA 1092 DEN 19:30 → MSO 21:39 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 4697 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 07:40	MSO 09:55	11%	3%	0.5%	100%worse than usual
UA 1342 United Flight history →	DEN 11:15	MSO 13:19	15%	4%	0.5%	92%
UA 4783 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 14:00	MSO 16:20	17%	6%	0.5%	86%
UA 1092 United Flight history →	DEN 19:30	MSO 21:39	26%	8%	0.5%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON