Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 1129 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–28%.

Safest bet that day DL 1129 DEN 06:00 → MSP 09:00 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 2677 DEN 19:05 → MSP 22:10 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 34% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1129 Delta Flight history →	DEN 06:00	MSP 09:00	4%	2%	0.6%	91%
WN 3420 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 07:50	MSP 10:55	7%	2%	0.5%	97%
UA 773 United Flight history →	DEN 07:40	MSP 10:38	7%	2%	0.5%	91%
UA 397 United Flight history →	DEN 09:35	MSP 12:34	9%	2%	0.5%	87%
DL 1675 Delta Flight history →	DEN 09:19	MSP 12:14	11%	3%	0.6%	87%
WN 3973 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 10:10	MSP 13:10	13%	2%	0.5%	82%
UA 732 United Flight history →	DEN 13:42	MSP 16:46	14%	5%	0.5%	84%
UA 667 United Flight history →	DEN 20:54	MSP 23:59	14%	6%	0.5%	59%
DL 2877 Delta Flight history →	DEN 12:11	MSP 15:11	15%	4%	0.6%	85%
UA 2076 United Flight history →	DEN 18:45	MSP 21:50	16%	8%	0.6%	76%
DL 2849 Delta Flight history →	DEN 11:08	MSP 14:08	16%	4%	0.6%	75%
UA 2470 United Flight history →	DEN 15:42	MSP 18:46	17%	6%	0.5%	76%
F9 1150 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 09:18	MSP 12:21	18%	4%	0.6%	84%
DL 2271 Delta Flight history →	DEN 16:08	MSP 19:15	22%	6%	0.6%	72%
DL 1220 Delta Flight history →	DEN 18:32	MSP 21:34	23%	7%	0.6%	72%
WN 1638 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 14:05	MSP 17:05	24%	5%	0.5%	50%
F9 1292 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 18:21	MSP 21:27	27%	11%	0.6%	65%
WN 1639 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 15:25	MSP 18:20	27%	7%	0.5%	52%
WN 2677 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 19:05	MSP 22:10	28%	9%	0.5%	34%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON