Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1642 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–32%.

Safest bet that day WN 1642 DEN 08:00 → MSY 11:45 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest F9 2360 DEN 17:15 → MSY 21:03 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1642 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 08:00	MSY 11:45	7%	1%	0.6%	96%
UA 2273 United Flight history →	DEN 09:50	MSY 13:39	11%	3%	0.6%	89%
UA 1541 United Flight history →	DEN 17:45	MSY 21:34	25%	10%	6.0%	77%
WN 1643 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 14:50	MSY 18:25	26%	6%	1.2%	64%
WN 3301 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 20:00	MSY 23:45	30%	9%	5.4%	36%
F9 2360 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 17:15	MSY 21:03	32%	12%	6.5%	81%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON