Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 4304 at 15:10, with a 26% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4304 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 15:10	MYR 20:30	26%	8%	0.6%	71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Myrtle Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Myrtle Beach is 2 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	DEN 05:45 → BNA 09:15WN 1483	1h 45m Nashville	BNA 11:00 → MYR 13:25WN 2412	5h 40m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	DEN 00:59 → DTW 05:48DL 1096	2h 57m Detroit	DTW 08:45 → MYR 10:39DL 1145	7h 40m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	DEN 06:00 → MSP 09:00DL 1129	3h 56m Minneapolis	MSP 12:56 → MYR 16:40DL 2327	8h 40m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	DEN 00:40 → ATL 05:42DL 302	3h 48m Atlanta	ATL 09:30 → MYR 10:47DL 3047	8h 07m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	DEN 05:45 → ATL 10:44DL 341	1h 04m Atlanta	ATL 11:48 → MYR 13:00DL 3182	5h 15m	97%	82%
American Details →	DEN 12:39 → DFW 15:47AA 2359	3h 41m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:28 → MYR 23:16AA 4019 · flown by Envoy	8h 37m	97%	81%
United Details →	DEN 06:00 → ORD 09:42UA 1377	1h 18m Chicago	ORD 11:00 → MYR 14:19UA 1332	6h 19m	97%	81%
United Details →	DEN 07:40 → EWR 13:27UA 2640	2h 28m Newark	EWR 15:55 → MYR 18:03UA 3589 · flown by Republic	8h 23m	99%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DEN 10:00 → CLT 15:31AA 1754	48m Charlotte	CLT 16:19 → MYR 17:25AA 2212	5h 25m	68%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON