Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1240 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–39%.

Safest bet that day WN 1240 DEN 07:45 → OAK 09:25 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest WN 1843 DEN 18:50 → OAK 20:25 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 30% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1240 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 07:45	OAK 09:25	6%	1%	0.5%	84%
WN 1577 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 10:55	OAK 12:25	16%	3%	0.5%	66%
WN 1650 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 22:10	OAK 23:50	25%	6%	0.6%	39%
WN 3563 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 13:15	OAK 14:50	28%	5%	0.5%	65%
WN 1843 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 18:50	OAK 20:25	39%	8%	0.6%	30%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON