tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via SFO, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Kahului on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1736 United Flight history → DEN 12:00 OGG 15:05 17% 7% 0.6% 87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kahului on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kahului is 4 h behind Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → DEN 05:15 → SFO 06:53UA 2367 1h 22m San Francisco SFO 08:15 → OGG 10:45UA 2010 9h 30m 98% 85%
SouthwestDetails → DEN 05:45 → LAS 06:40WN 3106 2h 40m Las Vegas LAS 09:20 → OGG 12:35WN 1457 10h 50m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → DEN 06:04 → LAX 07:34UA 1093 3h 23m Los Angeles LAX 10:57 → OGG 13:43UA 765 11h 39m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → DEN 11:45 → LAX 13:17UA 1013 3h 48m Los Angeles LAX 17:05 → OGG 19:48UA 2221 12h 03m 100% 83%
AlaskaDetails → DEN 12:02 → PDX 13:46AS 684 3h 59m Portland PDX 17:45 → OGG 20:40AS 353 12h 38m 100% 81%
UnitedDetails → DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561 3h 36m San Francisco SFO 16:40 → OGG 19:17UA 1749 11h 56m 100% 81%
UnitedDetails → DEN 09:43 → SFO 11:25UA 1506 2h 40m San Francisco SFO 14:05 → OGG 16:36UA 2623 10h 53m 99% 81%
SouthwestDetails → DEN 06:15 → PHX 07:05WN 1675 2h 15m Phoenix PHX 09:20 → OGG 12:40WN 2138 10h 25m 99% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DEN 07:40 → SFO 09:18UA 2391 47m San Francisco SFO 10:05 → OGG 12:34UA 573 8h 54m 68% 54%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON