Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3010 at 08:10 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 3010 DEN 08:10 → OKC 10:50 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 1653 DEN 17:30 → OKC 20:05 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3010 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 08:10	OKC 10:50	7%	1%	0.5%	90%
UA 6029 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 08:00	OKC 10:49	8%	3%	0.5%	97%
UA 5324 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 10:05	OKC 13:01	12%	5%	0.5%	90%
WN 1652 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 10:40	OKC 13:15	15%	2%	0.5%	80%
UA 5808 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 13:25	OKC 16:15	16%	9%	0.5%	85%
UA 4727 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 20:42	OKC 23:29	18%	8%	0.6%	76%
F9 1928 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 12:23	OKC 14:59	21%	7%	0.7%	83%
UA 1184 United Flight history →	DEN 17:31	OKC 20:11	22%	10%	0.6%	70%
WN 175 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 20:05	OKC 22:45	28%	9%	0.5%	33%
WN 1653 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 17:30	OKC 20:05	33%	9%	0.5%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON