Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1655 at 07:40 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 1655 DEN 07:40 → OMA 10:10 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 1659 DEN 19:20 → OMA 21:55 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 45% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1655 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 07:40	OMA 10:10	6%	1%	0.5%	90%
UA 5443 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 08:05	OMA 10:46	8%	2%	0.5%	97%
WN 748 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 09:55	OMA 12:30	10%	2%	0.5%	81%
UA 361 United Flight history →	DEN 10:09	OMA 12:42	11%	3%	0.5%	84%
UA 5251 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 15:38	OMA 18:19	14%	6%	0.5%	74%
UA 1787 United Flight history →	DEN 21:05	OMA 23:42	15%	5%	0.5%	68%
UA 2327 United Flight history →	DEN 13:50	OMA 16:24	16%	5%	0.5%	84%
UA 1436 United Flight history →	DEN 18:05	OMA 20:42	18%	7%	0.5%	66%
WN 1705 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 12:40	OMA 15:05	19%	3%	0.5%	68%
WN 1658 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 15:10	OMA 17:35	25%	4%	0.5%	56%
F9 1874 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 16:40	OMA 19:15	28%	10%	0.6%	71%
WN 1659 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 19:20	OMA 21:55	30%	6%	0.5%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON