Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1377 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–38%.

Safest bet that day UA 1377 DEN 06:00 → ORD 09:42 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest F9 3174 DEN 17:05 → ORD 20:52 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1377 United Flight history →	DEN 06:00	ORD 09:42	5%	2%	0.6%	89%
UA 2430 United Flight history →	DEN 08:00	ORD 11:44	7%	3%	0.6%	88%
AA 2771 American Flight history →	DEN 07:16	ORD 11:00	9%	4%	0.8%	88%
UA 2329 United Flight history →	DEN 09:35	ORD 13:15	10%	4%	0.5%	84%
AA 1747 American Flight history →	DEN 09:08	ORD 12:56	13%	5%	0.7%	75%
UA 2865 United Flight history →	DEN 11:15	ORD 14:55	14%	5%	0.5%	82%
UA 2649 United Flight history →	DEN 21:05	ORD 00:44	14%	5%	0.6%	71%
UA 2085 United Flight history →	DEN 19:40	ORD 23:19	17%	5%	0.6%	70%
AA 1744 American Flight history →	DEN 12:34	ORD 16:31	18%	8%	0.7%	76%
UA 2258 United Flight history →	DEN 19:10	ORD 22:49	18%	6%	0.6%	71%
UA 617 United Flight history →	DEN 13:25	ORD 17:05	20%	6%	0.6%	68%
UA 352 United Flight history →	DEN 16:59	ORD 20:40	21%	7%	0.6%	59%
UA 1411 United Flight history →	DEN 18:00	ORD 21:39	22%	6%	0.6%	50%
UA 675 United Flight history →	DEN 16:29	ORD 20:14	22%	7%	0.6%	58%
UA 1023 United Flight history →	DEN 15:01	ORD 18:46	22%	7%	0.6%	61%
AA 1734 American Flight history →	DEN 17:57	ORD 22:00	25%	9%	0.8%	54%
AA 1760 American Flight history →	DEN 14:34	ORD 18:29	26%	10%	0.7%	60%
F9 3174 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 17:05	ORD 20:52	38%	15%	0.8%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON